Simulations augment, don't replace, thinking

This article by Irving Wladawsky Berger discusses the promise and pitfalls of simulations of large complex systems. Starting with the vision of Psychohistory from Asimov's Foundation trilogy, the author notes that a highly unexpected event ("the Mule" for Asimov, fashionably called the "Black Swan" today) can violate the key assumptions of a model and generate an unanticipated outcome, such as the current financial crisis. The solution Berger proposes is to keep humans in the loop to provide the insight, broader experience and sanity checking that can't be built into any model.

This is a very important point for those who build and use simulations. A model is a tool that augments, but does not replace, the human ability to think. There are models for lay persons and models for experts; models for everyday work flow and models for the exploration of the posible and the very unlikely. You need the right tool for the right use (and user).

But don't throw the black swan out with the pond water-- even though one can't anticiate the unanticipatabe, it is still possible to use models to test systems for robustness:

• Identify the weak spots and strengthen them.
  
• Identify the early warning signs that the model is going off track and build alarm systems.
• Give your model to someone else to drive. They will do something you didn't anticipate.